A series of international reports published in late June and early July points to a coherent picture. Global growth remains resilient, investment is gradually recovering, and the artificial intelligence market is expanding. At the same time, energy volatility is raising production costs, capital is concentrating in strategic sectors, and AI development is becoming increasingly dependent on physical infrastructure.
The IMF’s July update of the World Economic Outlook shows the impact of two opposing forces. The energy consequences of the conflict are weighing on importers and vulnerable economies. The investment cycle around AI is supporting countries integrated into global technology chains. Global growth is projected at 3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, but these figures mask a growing divergence in national trajectories.
Energy Determines the Cost of Growth
Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 reports record global energy demand and the rapid expansion of low-carbon electricity. The energy transition is accelerating, but it is unfolding unevenly. Countries differ in their access to generation, grids, storage, technologies, and capital. These differences are already affecting production costs and the attractiveness of investment destinations.
A strong short-term shock has compounded the long-term restructuring. According to the IEA Gas Market Report, global natural gas demand in 2026 will decline by about 0.5%, or 20 billion cubic meters. The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted LNG supplies, pushed up prices, and increased pressure on energy-intensive industries.
The gas shock is quickly spreading through the economy. Rising feedstock costs affect fertilizer production, industrial capacity utilization, and power generation. The pressure then passes through to agriculture, food prices, and inflation. Energy security is becoming part of industrial, agricultural, and social policy.
The July Oil Market Report shows a different kind of tension. Crude oil supply is recovering faster than the production of refined products. Limited utilization of refining capacity is keeping shortages of certain fuels in place, while refining margins have reached four-year highs.
Energy resilience therefore depends on the entire chain: extraction, transport routes, refining, inventories, and delivery of fuel to consumers. The mere availability of raw materials no longer guarantees stable prices or sufficient supply in the domestic market.
Investment is increasingly concentrated around infrastructure
World Investment Report 2026 records a recovery in global foreign direct investment. Its volume increased by 6%, to $1.6 trillion, after two years of decline. At the same time, capital is becoming more concentrated, selective, and less accessible for many developing countries.
Geopolitical tensions and technological competition are changing the criteria for selecting investment destinations. Reliable energy, transport and digital infrastructure, a skilled workforce, predictable regulation, and access to markets are becoming increasingly important.
Capital is increasingly being directed toward semiconductors, data centers, energy, critical minerals, logistics, and other strategic sectors. States are using industrial policy, subsidies, and trade restrictions to shape their own technological and production ecosystems.
Under these conditions, the amount of investment attracted tells only part of the story. The economic outcome is determined by the depth of localization, the development of local suppliers, job creation, and the transfer of know-how. A large project may remain an isolated enclave or become the hub of a new production ecosystem.
The AI economy relies on physical resources
Discussion of artificial intelligence often focuses on models and applications. The OECD AI Markets Review shows a more complex structure. The number of developers and solutions is growing, while the cost of individual services is declining. The main constraints remain at the level of advanced chips, computing power, cloud infrastructure, and data.
The AI economy consists of several interconnected markets. Electricity powers data centers. Semiconductors provide computing capacity. Cloud platforms provide access to infrastructure. Data make it possible to train models. Human capital supports development and deployment. Capital finances scaling up.
Control over these resources gives large companies the ability to entrench market advantages and set the terms of access to technologies. Competition is gradually shifting from individual models to control over the entire infrastructure chain.
The energy and technology investment cycles are converging. The development of AI is increasing demand for electricity, grids, and data centers. Access to stable and relatively inexpensive energy is becoming a factor in the location of computing infrastructure. Digital investments, in turn, are creating new demand for power generation, transmission, and energy storage.
Productivity requires skills and organizational changes
In its study Skills in the AI Age, the OECD links the economic impact of AI to the ability of workers and organizations to adapt to new technologies. AI can raise productivity and create new jobs; however, a poorly managed transition increases the risk of displacing certain groups of workers.
Technology is changing the structure of tasks and the skills they require. Digital literacy, analytical thinking, working with data, project management, and sector-specific knowledge are becoming increasingly important. Economic gains emerge when processes, functions, and workforce training are reorganized.
OECD Employment Outlook 2026 adds a territorial dimension. Employment opportunities and income growth prospects vary significantly across regions. Technology investments can reinforce the advantages of large cities, where companies, universities, capital, and specialists are already concentrated.
As a result, AI can simultaneously raise overall productivity and widen disparities between regions. Regional policy, vocational training, and infrastructure development are becoming part of the technology transition.
What does this mean for Kazakhstan
Asian Development Outlook forecasts Kazakhstan’s economy to grow by 4.8% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027. Inflation is expected to stand at 10.4% and 9.5%, respectively. Growth continues, but the environment is becoming more challenging due to energy volatility, price pressures, and the prominent role of public investment.
Kazakhstan benefits as an exporter of oil, gas, uranium, and metals. At the same time, external volatility increases uncertainty in budget planning, export logistics, and domestic prices. Processing, route diversification, adequate inventories, and the resilience of the domestic fuel market are becoming increasingly important.
The new investment cycle opens up opportunities for energy, critical minerals, transport corridors, and data centers. Their economic impact depends on the development of local suppliers, engineering capabilities, and technological localization.
ADB Report on Carbon Pricing in Transport in CAREC Countries shows that climate regulation will gradually affect transport costs and the competitiveness of transport corridors. In some countries in the region, transport accounts for up to 23% of national emissions. For Kazakhstan, this agenda is linked to railways, road logistics, fleet renewal, and the development of the Middle Corridor.
The development of AI requires an integrated approach to digital, energy, and industrial policy. Data centers require sufficient generation capacity and reliable grids. Companies need affordable computing and cloud resources. Government and sectoral systems need high-quality data. The economy needs specialists capable of integrating AI into real production and management processes.
Energy, investment and artificial intelligence form a single system. Energy determines the cost of production and computing. Investment creates infrastructure. Infrastructure sets the conditions for AI deployment. AI changes productivity, demand for skills and the geography of jobs.
For Kazakhstan, this logic implies a shift toward an integrated economic policy in which energy, industry, digitalization, education, and regional development shape a common growth trajectory.