TALAP

Mandatory sale of currency: saving tenge or the path to inflation?

 

 


Nov. 19, 2024

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National companies of Kazakhstan will again be obliged to sell half of foreign currency earnings. The relevant resolution was prepared by the Government and the National Bank. The measure is aimed at improving the balance of the foreign exchange market, according to the responsible persons. The dollar is getting more expensive, oil is getting cheaper and the tenge is under stress again. The National Bank and the government are forced to oblige the quasi-public sector to sell up to 50% of foreign exchange earnings in order to reduce imports and demand for foreign currency. RASUL RYSMAMBETOV, Financial Analyst:
The instrument is not a market one. But you just need it. But you can't get carried away with it, you can introduce it for a year. But it will be more difficult from now on.
Mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings in Kazakhstan was introduced in 2020 during the covid. 75% of the currency was sold. In February 2023, it was reduced to 30%, and in August of the same year, the resolution was suspended. During that period, there was a strong increase in domestic inflation. ASKAR KYSYKOV, Director of the talap Center for Applied Research:

It has been 10 years, but it is already obvious that the floating rate does not work. The National Bank is constantly forced to intervene in the foreign exchange market either through the sale of assets of the national fund, or through instruments to replenish the assets of the UAPF. Now this is the norm for the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings. It cannot be said that in Kazakhstan we have achieved market exchange rate formation.
Since yesterday, the price per barrel of oil has strengthened from 72x to 73$. The tenge exchange rate today on the Case amounted to 496 tenge per 1 dollar. After the resolution of the national bank, economists predict the strengthening of tenge to 480 in the coming month.

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