Social discontent and the growth of Chinese investment: what worries Kazakhstanis

China is one of the key countries that seriously affects the economic, geopolitical and cultural space of Kazakhstan. However, despite the active cooperation, the perception of China in society remains ambiguous - Kazakhstanis do not hide their fears that they will eventually become economically dependent. At the same time, the volume of Chinese investments continues to grow, reports Ulysmedia.kz .

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Post-crisis restoration of China's image
According to research by the TALAP Center, the crisis of 2021 has significantly affected the global perception of China. If earlier China's median position deteriorated gradually, then in 2021 it became especially noticeable. The Kazakh media, in turn, continue to present China as a reliable partner and initiator of joint projects. Chinese media reciprocate, forming a positive image of Kazakhstan as a peaceful and rapidly developing country. However, as experts emphasize, stereotypes and fears about China are still deeply rooted in Kazakh society.

Evgeny Khan, Head of the TALAP Center's social service, PhD in Geography, notes that concerns related to China may change under the influence of external events and consistent policies.

  - Despite the rationalization of perception after the events of 2022, fears have temporarily receded, but this does not mean that they have disappeared forever. They may surface again at some point," he said.

Fears of Kazakhstanis
According to experts, Kazakhstan is dominated by several negative narratives towards China, of which three remain stable:

* Concerns that China wants to acquire land in Central Asia;

* Quality of Chinese goods;

* Economic dependence.

  - Speaking of negative narratives, one of them is the land trade. That is, there are fears that China will seize Kazakh land. In 2022-2023, there was a rationalization of perception. And these fears were temporarily pushed aside against the background of other changes, to which it was time to adapt. They haven't gone anywhere. They've just lost their relevance now, but that doesn't mean anything, at some point they may surface again. Speaking of change, this is the coronavirus pandemic, which has forced the population to rethink a lot. External reasons related to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and internal ones related to protests, with the launch of political and economic reform. The population has largely rethought its foreign policy map and its place on it. And China has gained its relative leadership in this situation," the expert noted.

Perception in different regions
The perception of China varies depending on the region of Kazakhstan.

* In the east of the country, closer to the border with China, there is more understanding of the importance of cooperation with China, but fears are stronger.

* In the west of Kazakhstan, despite the protests on the land issue, the positive perception of China turned out to be higher, which is associated with rationalization and the transition to new narratives.

  - The increase in positive perception was provided by Kazakh-speaking middle-aged citizens with different income levels. There is an interesting transition in the west of Kazakhstan, where emotional stereotypes have receded into the background," noted Yevgeny Khan.

The opinion of the youth of Central Asia
Studies of students from Central Asia who studied in China show a contradictory perception. Young people highly appreciate China's economic achievements, its infrastructure and technological innovations. However, at the same time:

* China is perceived as a "civilizational Other";

* China's development model does not seem to be suitable for Central Asian countries;

* Students are afraid of possible economic dependence.

  "These concerns are often related not so much to Chinese expansion as to distrust of their own governments," adds Evgeny Khan.

Chinese marketplaces and the market of Kazakhstan
Recently, there has been a wave of statements in Kazakhstan that Chinese marketplaces can harm small and medium-sized businesses. The main concerns are related to the fact that affordable prices for goods from China undermine the competitiveness of domestic producers. However, according to Askar Kysykov, the situation is not so clear.

  - It should be understood that these goods often do not overlap with the range of goods produced in Kazakhstan. Most of these products are technological, which we do not produce. The balance between the interests of the consumer and the producer must be taken into account. We see that prices with delivery from China are sometimes cheaper than those of domestic counterparts. This is a signal for our manufacturers to think about their competitiveness," he said.

He also stressed that Kazakhstani consumers often buy goods on foreign platforms due to high inflation and rising prices. This indicates the need to optimize production within the country.

China's Investments
Chinese investments play an important role in the diversification of Kazakhstan's economy. Among the major projects:

* Zhanatasskaya WPP (wind farm).

* “Tayynsha-mai" (oil production).

* GOK “Zhetisu Wolframs" (mining and processing plant).

It is worth noting that China ranks fourth in terms of investments in Kazakhstan. However, in recent years, the growth rate of investments from Russia has overtaken Chinese ones. Nevertheless, Chinese investments are expected to grow in the coming years due to large projects planned earlier.

  - We see that in the coming years China will begin to actively increase its capital-intensive investments in Kazakhstan. Last year was productive in terms of the number of agreements reached, and further growth is projected for 2024," Kysykov said.

Perception of China in a geopolitical context
In the views of Kazakhstanis, China is a necessary element of the surrounding world order. Whatever geopolitical alliances may be formed, it is important for the people of Kazakhstan that the PRC be in them.

Analysis of cooperation with different countries:

* China dominates the economy, education and medicine;

* Russia plays an important role in security and cultural issues;

* The US and the EU are seen as political partners;

* Central Asia is strengthening its importance in cultural and regional interaction.

How to reduce social discontent?
Researchers suggest looking for new approaches to reduce social tension. Public support and confidence building can be achieved through a transparent decision-making process and more active involvement of citizens in the discussion of investment projects.

  - We see the need for joint efforts to improve social infrastructure and create new jobs, - emphasizes Evgeny Khan.

Tengiz and Chevron: the opinion of Kazakhstanis
Chevron owns 50% in Tengizchevroil LLP (TCO), which develops the Tengiz and Korolevskoye oil and gas fields. The participants of Tengizchevroil are also ExxonMobil (25%), KazMunayGas (20%) and Lukarco (5%).

Against the background of the approaching completion of the contract with Chevron in 2033, polls show that:

* 43% of respondents support an open competition to choose a new partner, regardless of the country;

* 23% offer to "renegotiate" with Chevron on new terms;

* 5% believe that China should become a new investor.

Despite the ongoing social discontent, Chinese investments in Kazakhstan continue to grow. For successful cooperation, it is important to take into account public sentiment, actively involve citizens in decision-making and work to reduce negative narratives, analysts suggest. This is the only way, in their opinion, to strengthen political loyalty and public trust while maintaining beneficial economic relations with China.